International freight forwarding reading: for both imports and exports in May rebounded, the growth rate of more than expected "good results", analysts generally give optimistic comments.
           China's customs administration today released data showing that China's exports in May were up 8.7% year on year, 7.2% higher than expected, and imports rose by 14.8% in May, up from 8.3%. In May, the trade account was $40 billion 810 million, down from $47 billion 800 million expected.
For May, international freight forwarding imports and exports both rebound, higher than expected "good results", analysts generally give optimistic comments. Kyushu Securities chief economist Deng Haiqing believes that import and export data in May exceeded expectations significantly, reflecting the economic trend is still good, once again proved that in 2016 the economic L type inflection point has passed.
           Import and export of international freight forwarding difficult to sustain? Domestic and foreign demand is improving, but the foreign trade is still the second half of the risk of down Chinese researcher of international economic exchange center Zhang Yongjun said that the overall situation of foreign trade in the first half of this year than expected, reflecting the need to improve internal and external preference. China Merchants Securities macro team said that in May, iron ore, crude oil and other raw materials imported international freight agency rebounded significantly, indicating that domestic demand may be more stable than the market expected. Haitong Securities Jiang Chao team believes that the economic recovery in Europe and America continue to drive China's export improvement.
           But Zhang Yongjun and the financial research center of the bank, Liu Xuezhi and others also pointed out that the base, price factors, trade protectionism may lead to a downward trend in foreign trade in the second half.
           Economic recovery in Europe and America continues to drive China's export improvement
           Deng Haiqing pointed out that the international freight forwarding export data show that exports to China's economic support is still relatively strong. In the future, as the US, Japan and the European economies recover further, China's exports will continue to maintain a high level of growth, forming a strong support for China's economy.
           Haitong Securities Jiang Chao team believes that overseas economic recovery in Europe and America continue to drive China's export improvement. External demand to improve differentiation. Exports to the United States were still high in May, and the export growth to the EU rebounded sharply, while Japan's growth rate slipped. Emerging markets, South Korea, Hongkong, and other export growth improved, while the ASEAN, India international freight export growth declined.
           Import data is "pretty reversed": domestic demand may be more stable than expected
Deng Haiqing believes that the May import data "beautiful reverse", verify the inherent power of China economy is still abundant, reflecting the April import data of weaker commodity prices only see the top down, strict supervision of financial superimposed drag on economic factors such as bad, should not be a bearish economic logic.
           China Merchants Securities macro team said that in May, iron ore, crude oil, copper and other raw materials import volume rose significantly compared to the same month, indicating that domestic demand may be more stable than the market expected, there is no significant decline. Jiang Chao team pointed out that in May, China's imports of major commodities growth rate increased last month, but the contribution of commodity prices to the import amount continued to weaken.
           Imports rebounded, resulting in lower than expected trade surplus
Deng Haiqing said that in May the international freight forwarding trade surplus is slightly lower than expected mainly due to May, Chinese economy picked up again, making imports of a more substantial recovery, so that the trade surplus did not rise sharply. China Merchants Securities macro team also believes that imports exceeded expectations, resulting in a trade surplus below market expectations.
           Deng Haiqing also pointed out that although the trade surplus slightly lower than expected, but trade, foreign reserves, exchange rates and other data go well, the formation of the RMB exchange rate strong support. Jiang Chao team holds the same view: the surplus continues to rise, financial leverage to push up domestic interest rates, while European economic data better than the United States, leading to weak dollar, the RMB exchange rate is short-term strong.
           Guard against the risk of foreign trade fall in the second half of the risk
In May, the international freight forwarding import and export data optimistic at the same time, Zhang Yongjun, Liu Xuezhi and other analysts also in the second half of the risk of foreign trade down warning.
           Zhang Yongjun: base and price factors, the second half of foreign trade is bound to remain optimistic in the first half of the rise, will show a downward trend.
           Liu Xuezhi: need to focus on the continuity of the export situation, first half of the second half of the export trade better, there is uncertainty, do not rule out fluctuations, mainly due to the presence of the European American trade protectionism, but also causes the base of export growth.
The import side, after April PPI index has been weakened, good reason before the import data base, with prices, imports will appear lag phenomenon, the current import may be a few months before the order, with a lag of 1-3 months, then there is likely to slow down. Import growth in the second half or down to single digits, mainly due to the risk of weakening the economy began to show, commodity prices in the second half is difficult to continue to rise significantly.